Uncertainty Continues as Q4 Looms
A series of headwinds, including the prospect of looming new tariffs, continues to spur uncertainty for the housing and remodeling sectors as 2025 makes its turn into the fourth quarter. Among the key statistics and forecasts released in recent weeks by government agencies, research firms and industry-
related trade associations were the following:
HOUSING STARTS & NEW-HOME SALES
Single-family permits and construction starts continued to be down on a year-to-date basis, as the housing market remained impacted by elevated mortgage rates, challenging affordability conditions and macroeconomic uncertainty, according to the National Association of Home Builders, which is forecasting that 2025 will end with a decline in single-family housing starts. New-home sales year to date are about 3% lower in 2025, said the Washington, DC-based NAHB. “As a result of slowing home sales, inventory continues to rise,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz, adding that builders will be “pulling back” on construction in the months ahead due to current levels of inventory.
EXISTING-HOME SALES
The housing market remains challenging, but there is “a light at the end of the tunnel,” based on recent rises in mortgage applications, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said. According to Lawrence Yun of the Washington, DC-based NAR, existing-home sales will rise 6% this year and 11% in 2026. Mortgage rates, he forecasted, will average 6.4% through the second half of 2025 and 6.1% next year. “The housing market remains very difficult, (and) part of the delay in recovery is because the Federal Reserve appears to be on pause for a longer period,” said Yun. “Consistent job gains and rising wages are modestly helping,” Yun said, adding, however, that mortgage-rate fluctuations are the primary driver of homebuying decisions, and impact housing affordability more than wage gains.
RESIDENTIAL REMODELING
Most remodelers continue to express positive sentiment, but some, especially in the western part of the country, are seeing a slowing of home-renovation activity due largely to elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty, the NAHB reported. “Those remodelers who report a slowdown have cited economic uncertainty stemming from government policies as the main reason,” said NAHB Remodelers Chair Nicole Goolsby Morrison. Even in the face of current headwinds, however, the NAHB is projecting that remodeling will post “solid gains” in 2025, followed by “more modest but still positive growth” next year.
CABINET & VANITY SALES
Sales of kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities declined again in June compared to June of 2024, the Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturers Association reported. According to the KCMA’s latest monthly “Trend of Business Survey,” participating manufacturers noted that overall cabinet and vanity sales in June were down 7.4% from the same month a year earlier. Declines were reported for stock cabinets (-1.5%), as well as for semi-custom (-9.0%) and custom units (-7.2%), the KCMA reported. Year-to-date sales through June were down 6.5% compared to the same six-month period a year ago, the trade association said.
GRANDE FORESTA PERSPECTIVE
As a cabinet manufacturer with over 15 years of experience, Grande Foresta continues to invest in advanced equipment and efficient production lines to help clients stay competitive despite industry headwinds. By offering reliable lead times, multiple material options, and strict quality control, the factory ensures that partners can respond quickly to shifting demand. While the overall market faces pressure, Grande Foresta remains focused on supporting long-term growth for its customers through consistent supply and trusted collaboration.
